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Gulf Logistics Intelligence
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Read the Gulf
before it moves.
One intelligence layer over the region's chokepoints, freight markets and trade corridors, so your next decision is grounded in what's happening right now.
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28 JUN · GST
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Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, Suez
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GCC trucking & border wait times
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© 2026 GCC Logistics Intelligence Platform. All rights reserved.  ·  For informational purposes only. Not financial, legal or operational advice.  ·  Proprietary and confidential.
HM
Hamza El Mounhi
LIVE SIGNALS
● HORMUZ · Day 147 · ~10 transits/day (7-day avg) vs 85.5/day 2025 avg · IMF PortWatch AIS-verified ● BAB EL-MANDEB BLOCKADE · Houthi naval ban active · all Saudi-bound cargo · Day 43 ● BRENT CRUDE $126.55/bbl · +79% vs $71 pre-war (Feb 2026 avg) · 14 Oct · U.S. EIA Brent spot ● FBX GLOBAL $3,397/FEU · −3% since 14 Sep · read 18 Oct · Freightos Baltic Index ● JEBEL ALI · container calls/wk · IMF PortWatch ● WAR-RISK PREMIUM · Hormuz 6–10% of hull value (brokers, 14 Oct) · Saudi-linked ships ~3% at Yanbu, over 7% further south; others 0.2–0.3% (Reuters, 25 Sep) ● CAPE VS SUEZ · +27 days per Asia–Europe round voyage · ~$1M more per voyage before war-risk cover · Drewry, 8 Oct ● DREWRY WCI $4,485/FEU · +3% w/w · 15 Oct ● DAMMAM · calls/wk · IMF PortWatch ● DJIBOUTI · calls/wk · IMF PortWatch ● HORMUZ · Day 147 · ~10 transits/day (7-day avg) vs 85.5/day 2025 avg · IMF PortWatch AIS-verified ● BAB EL-MANDEB BLOCKADE · Houthi naval ban active · all Saudi-bound cargo · Day 43 ● BRENT CRUDE $126.55/bbl · +79% vs $71 pre-war (Feb 2026 avg) · 14 Oct · U.S. EIA Brent spot ● FBX GLOBAL $3,397/FEU · −3% since 14 Sep · read 18 Oct · Freightos Baltic Index ● JEBEL ALI · container calls/wk · IMF PortWatch ● WAR-RISK PREMIUM · Hormuz 6–10% of hull value (brokers, 14 Oct) · Saudi-linked ships ~3% at Yanbu, over 7% further south; others 0.2–0.3% (Reuters, 25 Sep) ● CAPE VS SUEZ · +27 days per Asia–Europe round voyage · ~$1M more per voyage before war-risk cover · Drewry, 8 Oct ● DREWRY WCI $4,485/FEU · +3% w/w · 15 Oct ● DAMMAM · calls/wk · IMF PortWatch ● DJIBOUTI · calls/wk · IMF PortWatch
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Chokepoints›Strait of Hormuz
Chokepoint Intelligence: Strait of Hormuz
Live view of transit disruption, insurance risk, carrier posture, and Gulf corridor implications.
—
A more resilient
Gulf tomorrow.
Transit Status
Severe disruption
Significantly below normal transit levels.
Source: AIS
Updated —
Transit Index
-89%
7-day avg vs. 85.5/day 2025 average
AIS undercounts: many ships cross with transponders off. UKMTO logged 254 transits in the 7 days to 16 Oct (about 36 a day; Al Jazeera), and Kpler put oil flows at 68% of pre-war.
Source: AIS
Updated —
War‑Risk Premium
6–10%
of hull value (Hormuz, brokers’ quotes)
↗ from ~0.25% before the war (Marsh)
ENOC: up to 10% of cargo value (9 Sep)
Carrier Posture
Gulf calls cut · Suez returning
Maersk: Dammam and Jubail suspended, Jeddah and King Abdullah Port for local consignees only, $1,000/container Hormuz fee. Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd relaunch FM1 to Khor Fakkan from 17 Oct; all three alliances are returning to Suez.
Latest Daily Transits
10/day
AIS-visible · data to latest · baseline 85.5/day (2025 average)
Source: IMF PortWatch ↗
Series to latest · page loaded —
Counts container, dry bulk, general cargo, ro-ro and tanker. No gas-carrier class exists in this series, so Qatari LNG and LPG are outside it — broader counts that include gas carriers put the pre-war norm nearer 125/day (Reuters).
Confidence Level
High
Based on AIS, carrier advisories and market data.
Source: GLI assessment
Updated —
Overview Transit Monitor Insurance & Surcharges Carrier Posture Corridor Implications
Live AIS — MarineTraffic · Strait of Hormuz Live
MarineTraffic live AIS · AIS transits 10/day (latest) vs 85.5/day 2025 averagelive
Key Takeaways
What changed?
Transit is −89% against the 85.5/day 2025 average (7-day avg ~10/day AIS-verified, latest 10 on latest), and — against the 2023 mean, after Iran re-declared the Strait closed on Jul 21; Maersk has suspended Dammam and Jubail calls (update 51, 7 Oct).
Why it matters?
War-risk cover is 6–10% of hull value (brokers, 14 Oct; about 0.25% before the war) and Brent is $126.55 (U.S. EIA Brent spot, 14 Oct), +79% vs. the $71 pre-war level (Feb 2026 average).
Decision relevance
Review Maersk's $1,000/container Hormuz fee and booking restrictions, landbridge options through Oman and Saudi Arabia, Sohar / Khor Fakkan gateways and war-risk cover for Gulf calls.
Next signals to watch
  • IRGC and US statements on vessel passage
  • Weekly IMF PortWatch transit counts
  • JWC war-risk listing changes
  • Carrier reinstatement of Hormuz calls
Transit Volumes
Daily vessel transits through Hormuz (IMF PortWatch, AIS-verified)
10/day vessels per day, 7‑day avg ↘ −89% vs. 85.5/day 2025 avg · −90% vs. 92/day 2023
⚠ Dark fleet not captured — AIS-only counts likely understate true throughput by 1.3–1.8× during elevated dark-fleet activity. Kpler cross-check ↗
IMF PortWatch · straits.live/api/v1/transitsdata to latest
Vessel Mix
Share of vessels transiting Hormuz · last 24h
Crude tankers10% • was 38%
Containers30% • was 15%
Product tankers0% • was 18%
LNG / LPG0% • was 12%
Bulk / other60% • was 17%
UNCTAD / AIS classification · straits.livereal data
War‑Risk & Insurance
Indicative premium as % of vessel value
6–10% of hull value ↗ up to 10% of cargo value
Brent $126.55/bbl (U.S. EIA Brent spot, 14 Oct), +79% vs. the $71 pre‑war level (Feb 2026 average). War-risk halved from ~5% after the Jun MoU, then re-escalated to 7.5–10% (S&P Global, 23 Jul); brokers quoted 6–10% in mid-October as attacks peaked (Insurance Business, 14 Oct). ENOC cites up to 10% of cargo value plus 5–6% cargo cover (Reuters, 9 Sep).
Insurance Business · S&P Global · Marsh · ENOC/Reuters · U.S. EIA Brent spotreal data
Carrier Posture
Gulf and Red Sea posture per carrier · same view across all three chokepoints
Maersk
RESTRICTED
Gulf: Dammam and Jubail suspended; Jeddah and King Abdullah Port open for local consignees only; some Khor Fakkan cargo moved to Jebel Ali on feeders through Hormuz (update 51, 7 Oct). FM1 Asia–Khor Fakkan relaunched with Hapag‑Lloyd, first sailing Qingdao 17 Oct.
Red Sea / Suez: AE15, AE19, AE11, AE5 and ME2 on Suez; AE12 has no first sailing date yet.
$1,000/container Hormuz fee · Emergency Freight Rate $1,800/20ft, $3,000/40ft
Hapag-Lloyd
RESTRICTED
Hormuz: Jebel Ali ad-hoc calls only; AGX resumes 18 Oct with a Khor Fakkan call (Hapag‑Lloyd operations update, as reported); FM1 relaunched jointly with Maersk.
Red Sea / Suez: same Gemini services as Maersk.
TDS, PSS and ECS surcharges remain in force
MSC
NO OCTOBER UPDATE
No October Gulf advisory found. A September industry summary has a limited number of MSC East–West services back on Suez; the July suspension of Hormuz calls is its last announced Gulf position.
CMA CGM
NO OCTOBER UPDATE
Hormuz calls suspended in July, its last announced Gulf position; MEDEX / INDAMEX remain on Suez, and a September industry summary has it partly back on Suez on Asia–Europe. No October Gulf advisory found.
Maersk operational update 51 (7 Oct) ↗ · Maersk FM1 relaunch (13 Oct) ↗ · The Loadstar (14 Sep) ↗ · MSC and CMA CGM: Carra Globe summary (25 Sep); no October advisory foundreal data
Freight Markets›Global Freight Rates
Freight Markets
Live container freight benchmarks across Asia–GCC lanes, tracked against pre-Hormuz baselines.
—
Tracking today.
Anticipating tomorrow.
FBX Global Container
$3,397/FEU
−3% since 14 Sep
Freightos Baltic · read 18 Oct
Drewry WCI Global
$4,485/FEU
+3% w/w
Drewry WCI · 15 Oct
Shanghai → Jebel Ali (Spot)
$8,312/FEU
median of 5 offers (2 forwarders), cheapest $7,241
Freightos marketplace quotes · 14 Oct
Shanghai → Jeddah (Spot)
$11,623/FEU
median of 8 offers, cheapest $9,128
Freightos marketplace quotes · 14 Oct
Market Overview Trade Lanes
◇ Global Shipping Lanes & Port Call Imbalance — Hormuz Crisis
Bubble size = commercial vessel calls/week (AIS-calibrated) • dashed ring = 2025 average • hover any port for data • 13 Oct 2026
Surging port (+50%+)
Stable port
Collapsed port
2025 average volume
Chokepoint: closed
Crisis hub
Via Cape (dominant)
Via Suez
Arctic NSR (seasonal)
IMF PortWatch · Lloyd's
IMF PortWatch (port calls weekly, chokepoint transits daily, updated every day) • Lloyd's List Intelligence • Inchcape ISSreal data
Market Intelligence
What changed?
On 14 Oct, Freightos marketplace quotes put Shanghai→Jebel Ali at a median $8,312/FEU and Shanghai→Jeddah at $11,623, with 60–78‑day transits on the cheapest offers. Drewry’s Shanghai–Jebel Ali index stood at $8,416 on 15 Oct, and Xeneta had China–Jeddah at $10,870 on 10 Sep, up 256% since 28 Feb.
Why it matters?
Cape routing adds about 27 days to an Asia–Europe round voyage and roughly $1M in cost before war-risk cover (Drewry, 8 Oct). Gulf cargo pays on top for Hormuz fees, feeders and the landbridge legs.
Decision relevance
Maersk serves Jeddah and King Abdullah Port for local consignees only and has suspended Dammam and Jubail (update 51, 7 Oct). Review booking flexibility and the Khor Fakkan, Sohar and landbridge options.
Next signals to watch
  • FBX/Drewry weekly resets
  • Carrier reinstatement of Hormuz-routed strings
  • Jeddah bookable-rate coverage beyond CMA CGM
  • Baltic Dry Index vs. container-rate divergence
Freight Rate Trends
━ Drewry WCI composite, $/FEU · weekly, 28 May – 15 Oct 2026
Drewry WCI (Drewry; trade-press reprints)real data
Rate Comparison by Lane
Jul and Oct 2026 vs. pre‑Hormuz baseline (USD/FEU, Shanghai origin; × = multiple of the Jan 2026 baseline)
Lane Jul 2026 Oct 2026
Jebel Ali (CoGH) $5,900x1.3 $8,312x1.8
Dammam (CoGH) $9,700x1.9 $8,771x1.8
Sohar / KF Oman (Direct) $5,750x2.1 $7,343x2.6
Hamad Qatar (CoGH) $9,700x1.8 N/A
Jeddah (Red Sea) $10,000x3.3 $11,623x3.9
Jul: SeaRates carrier rates · Oct: Freightos marketplace median, 14 Oct · N/A = not in the Oct readingreal data
Market Drivers
Current state, direction and rate impact
Driver Trend Impact
Vessel capacity (Hormuz) ↑ Higher rates
War-risk premium (Hormuz 6–10%) ↑ Higher rates
Cape of Good Hope diversion ↑ +22–80 days
Carrier discipline (Suez return under way) → Rate stability
Brent crude ($126.55) ↑ Higher fuel cost
Lane Benchmarks
Full route rate detail by origin, per FEU · Jul and Oct 2026
ROUTE RATES – SHANGHAI (SHA) → GCC
Spot rates per FEU · Jul 2026: carrier bookable rates (SeaRates) · Oct 2026: Freightos marketplace median, read 14 Oct · Jun 2026 ref in footnote
REAL DATA
PORT ROUTE JUL 2026 OCT 2026 PRE-HORMUZ Δ OCT (JUL) JUL DAYS
Jebel Ali UAE
CoGH
~$5,900
Jun: $7,000–7,700
$8,312
median of 5 offers (2 forwarders) · cheapest $7,241 · 66–73d
~$4,500
x1.8
Jul x1.3
~22–35d
Dammam SA
CoGH
~$9,700
Jun: $12,500–13,500
$8,771
median of 3 offers (1 forwarder) · cheapest $8,261 · 68–75d
~$5,000
x1.8
Jul x1.9
~25–49d
Sohar / KF Oman
Direct
~$5,750
Jun: $6,300–8,000
$7,343
median of 3 offers (1 forwarder) · cheapest $6,833 · 67–74d
~$2,800
x2.6
Jul x2.1
~22–35d
Hamad Qatar
CoGH
~$9,700
Jun: $14,000–15,200
N/A
~$5,500
N/A
Jul x1.8
~25–49d
Jeddah SA †
Red Sea
CMA CGM ~$10,000
Maersk $3,554 ‡
Jun: ~$9,300
$11,623
median of 8 offers · cheapest $9,128 · 71–78d
~$3,000
x3.9
Jul x3.3 · x1.2 ‡
~27–44d
Port of NEOM SA
Red Sea
Data pending — no commercial liner services operating at scale · Jun 2026
† Jeddah: CMA CGM active bookable rates Jul 2026, avg ~$10,000 · transit 27–44d via Cape+Suez north entry · no Bab el-Mandeb exposure
‡ Maersk last bookable SHA→Jeddah rate $3,554 (May 2026) — validity expired Jul 4 2026, no new bookable rates issued after that date
SeaRates ‘alternative’ (bookable) rates only · indicative rates excluded · Jul 2026 · Jun ref: SeaRates + Freightos all-in Seabay 25 Jun 2026 · pre-Hormuz = Jan 2026 baseline
Oct 2026: Freightos marketplace quotes (forwarder offers, all-in port to port, 1×40′), read 14 Oct 2026, valid to 31 Oct; routing not shown. A different source from the July carrier rates, so part of the Jul–Oct change can be the source, not the market. N/A = not in the 14 Oct reading (Hamad was not among its destinations).
ROUTE RATES – HAMBURG (HAM) → GCC
Spot rates per FEU · Jul 2026: avg multi-carrier · Oct 2026: N/A, Freightos showed no offers for Hamburg on 14 Oct · Jun 2026 ref in footnote
PORT ROUTE JUL 2026 OCT 2026 PRE-HORMUZ Δ OCT (JUL) JUL DAYS
Jebel Ali UAE
CoGH
~$5,600
Jun: $3,900–4,200
N/A
~$2,500
N/A
Jul x2.2
~46–73d
Dammam SA
CoGH
~$7,400
Jun: $6,600–7,500
N/A
~$2,800
N/A
Jul x2.6
~33–80d
Sohar Oman
Oman
~$6,250
Jun: $4,800–5,200
N/A
~$1,800
N/A
Jul x3.5
~52–73d
Hamad Qatar
CoGH
~$7,540
Jun: $6,600–7,400
N/A
~$3,200
N/A
Jul x2.4
~63–80d
Jeddah SA
Red Sea
~$6,100
Jun: $3,500–4,000
N/A
~$1,500
N/A
Jul x4.1
~27–43d
SeaRates ‘alternative’ (bookable) rates only · indicative rates excluded · CMA CGM / Maersk / Evergreen / ANL / MSC · Jul 2026
Jun ref: SeaRates + Freightos Seabay 25 Jun 2026 · Maersk last bookable HAM→Jeddah rate expired Jun 2026
ROUTE RATES – SINGAPORE (SIN) → GCC
Jul 2026: SeaRates ‘alternative’ (bookable) rates only, indicative rates excluded · Oct 2026: Freightos marketplace median, read 14 Oct
PORT ROUTE JUL 2026 OCT 2026 PRE-HORMUZ Δ OCT (JUL) JUL DAYS
Jebel Ali UAE
Direct
~$6,700
Jun: ~$5,811
$8,975
median of 3 offers (1 forwarder) · cheapest $8,465 · 60–67d
~$1,500
x6.0
Jul x4.5
~21–37d
Sohar Oman
Direct
~$6,540
Jun: ~$5,811
$8,567
median of 3 offers (1 forwarder) · cheapest $8,057 · 61–68d
~$1,200
x7.1
Jul x5.5
~21–37d
Hamad Qatar
CoGH
~$9,800
Jun: ~$12,960
N/A
~$2,000
N/A
Jul x4.9
~21–41d
Jeddah SA
Red Sea
$7,992
Jun: ~$6,912 · CMA CGM
$10,862
median of 3 offers (1 forwarder) · cheapest $10,352 · 65–72d
~$1,800
x6.0
Jul x4.4
~14d
Shuwaikh Kuwait
CoGH
~$10,700
Jun: —
N/A
~$2,200
N/A
Jul x4.9
~34–40d
SeaRates ‘alternative’ (bookable) rates only · indicative rates excluded · CMA CGM / Maersk / MSC / ANL · Jul 2026
Jeddah: CMA CGM only (sole bookable rate Jul 2026) · Jun ref: CMA CGM SeaRates 18 Jun 2026 (Tanjung Pelepas hub proxy) · pre-Hormuz = Jan 2026 baseline est.
Oct 2026: Freightos marketplace quotes (forwarder offers, all-in port to port, 1×40′), read 14 Oct 2026, valid to 31 Oct; one forwarder (Seabay) on each lane; routing not shown. A different source from the July carrier rates. N/A = not in the 14 Oct reading (Hamad and Shuwaikh were not among its destinations).